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Biogen Q3 Preview: Will Growth Products Drive an Earnings Beat?
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Key Takeaways
Biogen's growth portfolio surpassed legacy MS drug revenues in Q2, with momentum expected to continue.
Skyclarys, Qalsody, Zurzuvae and Spinraza may help offset declining Tecfidera and Tysabri sales.
Biogen expects a $1.70-per-share earnings hit from acquired R&D and milestone expenses in Q3.
We expect Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings beat expectations by 18.42%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.60 billion and $2.05 per share, respectively.
Factors to Consider for Biogen
In the third quarter, lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Tysabri, are likely to have been offset by higher revenues from new drugs, Skyclarys, Qalsody and Zurzuvae, and contributions from newly acquired drugs, Empaveli and Syfovre, from the Apellis acquisition.
Sales from Biogen’s growth products exceeded revenues from its legacy MS portfolio in the second quarter. Its growth drugs include Spinraza, Vumerity, new drugs Skyclarys (Friedreich’s ataxia), Qalsody (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) and Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN - Free Report) -partnered Zurzuvae (postpartum depression). Its growth drugs also include Empaveli and Syfovre, from the Apellis acquisition, plus Alzheimer’s revenues from the Leqembi collaboration with Eisai. The growth portfolio is expected to maintain its lead in the second half of 2026.
Sales of Biogen’s MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri are likely to have declined in the third quarter. Sales of Tecfidera are likely to have been hurt by generic competition globally, particularly in Europe. Sales of Tysabri are likely to have been hurt by biosimilar competition in Europe and a decrease in U.S. demand.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera is pegged at $88.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tysabri is $379.0 million.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, declined in the second quarter due to inventory dynamics. We expect the trend to have reversed in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vumerity is $210.0 million.
Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have continued to improve in the quarter due to demand and stocking for the new high-dose regimen. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spinraza is $384.0 million.
Sales of Biogen’s new drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia are likely to have continued to improve on higher demand growth in both U.S. and ex-U.S. markets.
Sales of other new drugs, Zurzuvae and Qalsody, are likely to have benefited from strong demand trends.
Biogen has a collaboration with Supernus Pharmaceuticals for Zurzuvae. Biogen and Supernus Pharmaceuticals equally share profits and losses for the commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States. In outside U.S. markets, Biogen records product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) and pays royalties to Supernus.
Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues are expected to have risen in the quarter. Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues include Biogen’s 50% share of net product revenues and cost of sales (including royalties) from Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab), which has been developed in collaboration with Eisai.
Leqembi sales have been improving sequentially over the past few quarters, driven by demand growth globally. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter. Leqembi sales are recorded by Eisai.
Contribution from Apellis’ products, Empaveli and Syfovre, is likely to have been much higher in the third quarter than the second since Biogen only began recording Syfovre and Empaveli revenues in mid-May.
In the third quarter, Biogen will record a charge related to acquired in-process research and development, upfront and milestone expense, which is expected to hurt adjusted earnings by $1.70 per share.
BIIB’s Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.7%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Biogen’s stock has risen 42.4% so far this year compared with an increase of 4.7% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Says for BIIB
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +0.23%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are two drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Gilead’s stock has risen 27.1% so far this year. GILD beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.12%, on average. Gilead is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29.
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Shares of Pfizer have risen 20.6% so far this year. Pfizer beat earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 16.62%. Pfizer is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 3.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Biogen Q3 Preview: Will Growth Products Drive an Earnings Beat?
Key Takeaways
We expect Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings beat expectations by 18.42%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.60 billion and $2.05 per share, respectively.
Factors to Consider for Biogen
In the third quarter, lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Tysabri, are likely to have been offset by higher revenues from new drugs, Skyclarys, Qalsody and Zurzuvae, and contributions from newly acquired drugs, Empaveli and Syfovre, from the Apellis acquisition.
Sales from Biogen’s growth products exceeded revenues from its legacy MS portfolio in the second quarter. Its growth drugs include Spinraza, Vumerity, new drugs Skyclarys (Friedreich’s ataxia), Qalsody (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) and Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN - Free Report) -partnered Zurzuvae (postpartum depression). Its growth drugs also include Empaveli and Syfovre, from the Apellis acquisition, plus Alzheimer’s revenues from the Leqembi collaboration with Eisai. The growth portfolio is expected to maintain its lead in the second half of 2026.
Sales of Biogen’s MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri are likely to have declined in the third quarter. Sales of Tecfidera are likely to have been hurt by generic competition globally, particularly in Europe. Sales of Tysabri are likely to have been hurt by biosimilar competition in Europe and a decrease in U.S. demand.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera is pegged at $88.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tysabri is $379.0 million.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, declined in the second quarter due to inventory dynamics. We expect the trend to have reversed in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vumerity is $210.0 million.
Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have continued to improve in the quarter due to demand and stocking for the new high-dose regimen. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spinraza is $384.0 million.
Sales of Biogen’s new drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia are likely to have continued to improve on higher demand growth in both U.S. and ex-U.S. markets.
Sales of other new drugs, Zurzuvae and Qalsody, are likely to have benefited from strong demand trends.
Biogen has a collaboration with Supernus Pharmaceuticals for Zurzuvae. Biogen and Supernus Pharmaceuticals equally share profits and losses for the commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States. In outside U.S. markets, Biogen records product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) and pays royalties to Supernus.
Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues are expected to have risen in the quarter. Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues include Biogen’s 50% share of net product revenues and cost of sales (including royalties) from Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab), which has been developed in collaboration with Eisai.
Leqembi sales have been improving sequentially over the past few quarters, driven by demand growth globally. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter. Leqembi sales are recorded by Eisai.
Contribution from Apellis’ products, Empaveli and Syfovre, is likely to have been much higher in the third quarter than the second since Biogen only began recording Syfovre and Empaveli revenues in mid-May.
In the third quarter, Biogen will record a charge related to acquired in-process research and development, upfront and milestone expense, which is expected to hurt adjusted earnings by $1.70 per share.
BIIB’s Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.7%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Biogen’s stock has risen 42.4% so far this year compared with an increase of 4.7% for the industry.
What Our Model Says for BIIB
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +0.23%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are two drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Gilead Sciences (GILD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.08% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Gilead’s stock has risen 27.1% so far this year. GILD beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.12%, on average. Gilead is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29.
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Shares of Pfizer have risen 20.6% so far this year. Pfizer beat earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 16.62%. Pfizer is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 3.